{
 "id": "isr-legislative-2026-10-27",
 "iso": "ISR",
 "pays": "Israël",
 "continent": "Asie",
 "type": "LEGISLATIVES",
 "chambre": "BASSE",
 "date": "2026-10-27",
 "date_statut": "CONFIRMEE",
 "systeme": "Knesset, proportionnelle intégrale en circonscription unique, listes fermées, seuil 3,25%, méthode Bader-Ofer",
 "source_date": "https://www.timesofisrael.com/knesset-election-set-for-october-27-with-government-set-to-complete-full-term/",
 "date_verification": "2026-09-02",
 "niveau": "suivi",
 "fiche_url": "https://election.lemillenaire.org/israel/index.html#scrutin-israel-knesset-2026",
 "intitule": {
  "fr": "Élections à la Knesset",
  "en": "Israeli Knesset election"
 },
 "forces": [
  {
   "nom": "Likoud",
   "couleur": "#0038b8",
   "couleur_source": "sondage",
   "sondage": 20.0,
   "autres": false,
   "precedent": 23.4,
   "precedent_nom": "Likoud",
   "note": {
    "fr": "premier parti en 2022 avec 32 sièges, pivot du bloc Netanyahou"
   },
   "id": "likoud"
  },
  {
   "nom": "Yashar (Bennett)",
   "couleur": "#f7941d",
   "couleur_source": "sondage",
   "sondage": 18.3,
   "autres": false,
   "id": "yashar-bennett"
  },
  {
   "nom": "Together (Lapid)",
   "couleur": "#00a9e0",
   "couleur_source": "sondage",
   "sondage": 10.8,
   "autres": false,
   "id": "together-lapid"
  },
  {
   "nom": "The Democrats",
   "couleur": "#e63946",
   "couleur_source": "sondage",
   "sondage": 7.5,
   "autres": false,
   "id": "the-democrats"
  },
  {
   "nom": "Shas",
   "couleur": "#1c1c1c",
   "couleur_source": "sondage",
   "sondage": 7.1,
   "autres": false,
   "precedent": 8.3,
   "precedent_nom": "Shas",
   "note": {
    "fr": "11 sièges en 2022, ultra-orthodoxes séfarades"
   },
   "id": "shas"
  },
  {
   "nom": "Yisrael Beiteinu",
   "couleur": "#5b7fa6",
   "couleur_source": "sondage",
   "sondage": 6.7,
   "autres": false,
   "precedent": 4.5,
   "precedent_nom": "Yisrael Beitenou",
   "note": {
    "fr": "6 sièges en 2022"
   },
   "id": "yisrael-beiteinu"
  },
  {
   "nom": "United Torah Judaism",
   "couleur": "#2e2e2e",
   "couleur_source": "sondage",
   "sondage": 6.7,
   "autres": false,
   "precedent": 5.9,
   "precedent_nom": "Judaïsme unifié de la Torah",
   "note": {
    "fr": "7 sièges en 2022, ultra-orthodoxes ashkénazes"
   },
   "id": "united-torah-judaism"
  },
  {
   "nom": "Otzma Yehudit",
   "couleur": "#8a1c1c",
   "couleur_source": "sondage",
   "sondage": 6.3,
   "autres": false,
   "id": "otzma-yehudit"
  },
  {
   "nom": "Liste arabe unie (Joint List)",
   "couleur": "#2a9d8f",
   "couleur_source": "sondage",
   "sondage": 6.3,
   "autres": false,
   "id": "liste-arabe-unie-joint-list"
  },
  {
   "nom": "Sionisme religieux + Zehout",
   "couleur": "#a4141f",
   "couleur_source": "sondage",
   "sondage": 5.0,
   "autres": false,
   "id": "sionisme-religieux-zehout"
  },
  {
   "nom": "Raam",
   "couleur": "#4a7c3a",
   "couleur_source": "sondage",
   "sondage": 4.2,
   "autres": false,
   "precedent": 4.1,
   "precedent_nom": "Ra'am",
   "note": {
    "fr": "5 sièges en 2022, Liste arabe unie"
   },
   "id": "raam"
  },
  {
   "nom": "Autres",
   "couleur": "#8a9099",
   "couleur_source": "sondage",
   "sondage": 1.1,
   "autres": true,
   "id": "autres"
  }
 ],
 "forces_origine": "sondage",
 "couleurs_affichage": false,
 "sieges": 120,
 "sieges_en_jeu": null,
 "majorite": 61,
 "chambre_sortante": {
  "nom": "Knesset",
  "total": 120,
  "groupes": [
   {
    "nom": "Likoud (HaLikud)",
    "sigle": "Likoud",
    "effectif": 32,
    "position": "droite",
    "vacant": false,
    "hors_vote": false,
    "source": "https://knesset.gov.il/Odata/ParliamentInfo.svc/KNS_PersonToPosition?$filter=KnessetNum%20eq%2025%20and%20IsCurrent%20eq%20true%20and%20PositionID%20eq%2054&$format=json",
    "date": "2026-09-23",
    "fiabilite": "verifie",
    "couleur": "#0038b8",
    "force": "likoud"
   },
   {
    "nom": "Yesh Atid",
    "sigle": "Yesh Atid",
    "effectif": 24,
    "position": "centre",
    "vacant": false,
    "hors_vote": false,
    "source": "https://knesset.gov.il/Odata/ParliamentInfo.svc/KNS_PersonToPosition?$filter=KnessetNum%20eq%2025%20and%20IsCurrent%20eq%20true%20and%20PositionID%20eq%2054&$format=json",
    "date": "2026-09-23",
    "fiabilite": "verifie",
    "couleur": "#c98a1f"
   },
   {
    "nom": "Shas",
    "sigle": "Shas",
    "effectif": 11,
    "position": "droite",
    "vacant": false,
    "hors_vote": false,
    "source": "https://knesset.gov.il/Odata/ParliamentInfo.svc/KNS_PersonToPosition?$filter=KnessetNum%20eq%2025%20and%20IsCurrent%20eq%20true%20and%20PositionID%20eq%2054&$format=json",
    "date": "2026-09-23",
    "fiabilite": "verifie",
    "couleur": "#1c1c1c",
    "force": "shas"
   },
   {
    "nom": "Kahol Lavan – HaMachane HaMamlachti (Union nationale)",
    "sigle": "Kahol Lavan",
    "effectif": 8,
    "position": "centre",
    "vacant": false,
    "hors_vote": false,
    "source": "https://knesset.gov.il/Odata/ParliamentInfo.svc/KNS_PersonToPosition?$filter=KnessetNum%20eq%2025%20and%20IsCurrent%20eq%20true%20and%20PositionID%20eq%2054&$format=json",
    "date": "2026-09-23",
    "fiabilite": "verifie",
    "couleur": "#5b4b8a"
   },
   {
    "nom": "Judaïsme unifié de la Torah",
    "sigle": "UTJ",
    "effectif": 7,
    "position": "droite",
    "vacant": false,
    "hors_vote": false,
    "source": "https://knesset.gov.il/Odata/ParliamentInfo.svc/KNS_PersonToPosition?$filter=KnessetNum%20eq%2025%20and%20IsCurrent%20eq%20true%20and%20PositionID%20eq%2054&$format=json",
    "date": "2026-09-23",
    "fiabilite": "verifie",
    "couleur": "#2e2e2e",
    "force": "united-torah-judaism"
   },
   {
    "nom": "Sionisme religieux (Smotrich)",
    "sigle": "Sionisme religieux",
    "effectif": 7,
    "position": "extreme_droite",
    "vacant": false,
    "hors_vote": false,
    "source": "https://knesset.gov.il/Odata/ParliamentInfo.svc/KNS_PersonToPosition?$filter=KnessetNum%20eq%2025%20and%20IsCurrent%20eq%20true%20and%20PositionID%20eq%2054&$format=json",
    "date": "2026-09-23",
    "fiabilite": "verifie",
    "couleur": "#8a5b2f"
   },
   {
    "nom": "Israël Beiteinou",
    "sigle": "Israël Beiteinou",
    "effectif": 6,
    "position": "droite",
    "vacant": false,
    "hors_vote": false,
    "source": "https://knesset.gov.il/Odata/ParliamentInfo.svc/KNS_PersonToPosition?$filter=KnessetNum%20eq%2025%20and%20IsCurrent%20eq%20true%20and%20PositionID%20eq%2054&$format=json",
    "date": "2026-09-23",
    "fiabilite": "verifie",
    "couleur": "#5b7fa6",
    "force": "yisrael-beiteinu"
   },
   {
    "nom": "Otzma Yehudit (Ben-Gvir)",
    "sigle": "Otzma Yehudit",
    "effectif": 6,
    "position": "extreme_droite",
    "vacant": false,
    "hors_vote": false,
    "source": "https://knesset.gov.il/Odata/ParliamentInfo.svc/KNS_PersonToPosition?$filter=KnessetNum%20eq%2025%20and%20IsCurrent%20eq%20true%20and%20PositionID%20eq%2054&$format=json",
    "date": "2026-09-23",
    "fiabilite": "verifie",
    "couleur": "#8a1c1c",
    "force": "otzma-yehudit"
   },
   {
    "nom": "Ra'am (Liste arabe unie)",
    "sigle": "Ra'am",
    "effectif": 5,
    "position": "droite",
    "vacant": false,
    "hors_vote": false,
    "source": "https://knesset.gov.il/Odata/ParliamentInfo.svc/KNS_PersonToPosition?$filter=KnessetNum%20eq%2025%20and%20IsCurrent%20eq%20true%20and%20PositionID%20eq%2054&$format=json",
    "date": "2026-09-23",
    "fiabilite": "verifie",
    "couleur": "#2a9d8f",
    "force": "liste-arabe-unie-joint-list"
   },
   {
    "nom": "Hadash-Ta'al",
    "sigle": "Hadash-Ta'al",
    "effectif": 5,
    "position": "gauche",
    "vacant": false,
    "hors_vote": false,
    "source": "https://knesset.gov.il/Odata/ParliamentInfo.svc/KNS_PersonToPosition?$filter=KnessetNum%20eq%2025%20and%20IsCurrent%20eq%20true%20and%20PositionID%20eq%2054&$format=json",
    "date": "2026-09-23",
    "fiabilite": "verifie",
    "couleur": "#16294d"
   },
   {
    "nom": "Parti travailliste (HaAvoda)",
    "sigle": "Avoda",
    "effectif": 4,
    "position": "centre_gauche",
    "vacant": false,
    "hors_vote": false,
    "source": "https://knesset.gov.il/Odata/ParliamentInfo.svc/KNS_PersonToPosition?$filter=KnessetNum%20eq%2025%20and%20IsCurrent%20eq%20true%20and%20PositionID%20eq%2054&$format=json",
    "date": "2026-09-23",
    "fiabilite": "verifie",
    "couleur": "#1f7a4c"
   },
   {
    "nom": "Hayamin Hamamlachit (Sa'ar)",
    "sigle": "Hayamin Hamamlachit",
    "effectif": 4,
    "position": "centre_droit",
    "vacant": false,
    "hors_vote": false,
    "source": "https://knesset.gov.il/Odata/ParliamentInfo.svc/KNS_PersonToPosition?$filter=KnessetNum%20eq%2025%20and%20IsCurrent%20eq%20true%20and%20PositionID%20eq%2054&$format=json",
    "date": "2026-09-23",
    "fiabilite": "verifie",
    "couleur": "#2f8fa6"
   },
   {
    "nom": "Noam (Maoz)",
    "sigle": "Noam",
    "effectif": 1,
    "position": "extreme_droite",
    "vacant": false,
    "hors_vote": false,
    "source": "https://knesset.gov.il/Odata/ParliamentInfo.svc/KNS_PersonToPosition?$filter=KnessetNum%20eq%2025%20and%20IsCurrent%20eq%20true%20and%20PositionID%20eq%2054&$format=json",
    "date": "2026-09-23",
    "fiabilite": "verifie",
    "couleur": "#6d7280"
   }
  ],
  "tri_politique": true,
  "sources": [
   "https://knesset.gov.il/Odata/ParliamentInfo.svc/KNS_PersonToPosition?$filter=KnessetNum%20eq%2025%20and%20IsCurrent%20eq%20true%20and%20PositionID%20eq%2054&$format=json"
  ],
  "date": "2026-09-23",
  "a_verifier": false,
  "ordre": [
   "Hadash-Ta'al",
   "Avoda",
   "Yesh Atid",
   "Kahol Lavan",
   "Hayamin Hamamlachit",
   "Likoud",
   "Shas",
   "UTJ",
   "Israël Beiteinou",
   "Ra'am",
   "Sionisme religieux",
   "Otzma Yehudit",
   "Noam"
  ]
 },
 "precedent": {
  "texte": {
   "fr": "Élections du 1er novembre 2022 pour la 25e Knesset. Participation 70,6 %, suffrages valides 4 764 742.",
   "en": "Election of 1 November 2022 for the 25th Knesset. Turnout 70.6%, 4,764,742 valid votes."
  },
  "sources": [
   "https://en.idi.org.il/articles/63750",
   "https://www.electionguide.org/elections/id/3970"
  ]
 },
 "sondage": {
  "id": "israel-knesset-2026",
  "date": "2026-09-04",
  "agregat": [
   {
    "nom": "Likoud",
    "couleur": "#0038b8",
    "centrale": 20.0
   },
   {
    "nom": "Yashar (Bennett)",
    "couleur": "#f7941d",
    "centrale": 18.3
   },
   {
    "nom": "Together (Lapid)",
    "couleur": "#00a9e0",
    "centrale": 10.8
   },
   {
    "nom": "The Democrats",
    "couleur": "#e63946",
    "centrale": 7.5
   },
   {
    "nom": "Shas",
    "couleur": "#1c1c1c",
    "centrale": 7.1
   },
   {
    "nom": "Yisrael Beiteinu",
    "couleur": "#5b7fa6",
    "centrale": 6.7
   },
   {
    "nom": "United Torah Judaism",
    "couleur": "#2e2e2e",
    "centrale": 6.7
   },
   {
    "nom": "Otzma Yehudit",
    "couleur": "#8a1c1c",
    "centrale": 6.3
   },
   {
    "nom": "Liste arabe unie (Joint List)",
    "couleur": "#2a9d8f",
    "centrale": 6.3
   },
   {
    "nom": "Sionisme religieux + Zehout",
    "couleur": "#a4141f",
    "centrale": 5.0
   },
   {
    "nom": "Raam",
    "couleur": "#4a7c3a",
    "centrale": 4.2
   },
   {
    "nom": "Autres",
    "couleur": "#8a9099",
    "centrale": 1.1
   }
  ],
  "methode": {
   "fr": "Moyenne de six enquêtes publiées entre le 2 et le 4 septembre 2026 (Maariv/Lazar, Channel 14/Filber, Israel Hayom/Kantar, Zman Yisrael/Tatika, Channel 13/Midgam, i24NEWS/Direct Polls). Les instituts israéliens publient des projections de sièges à la Knesset, pas des intentions de vote en pourcentage : la valeur centrale ici est la part de sièges projetée sur 120, moyennée sur les six enquêtes, pas un pourcentage de voix. C'est une transposition déclarée, pas un sondage de plus.",
   "en": "Average of six surveys published between 2 and 4 September 2026 (Maariv/Lazar, Channel 14/Filber, Israel Hayom/Kantar, Zman Yisrael/Tatika, Channel 13/Midgam, i24NEWS/Direct Polls). Israeli pollsters publish Knesset seat projections, not vote-share percentages: the central value here is the projected seat share out of 120, averaged across the six surveys, not a vote percentage. This is a declared transposition, not one more poll.",
   "de": "Durchschnitt aus sechs zwischen dem 2. und 4. September 2026 veröffentlichten Umfragen (Maariv/Lazar, Channel 14/Filber, Israel Hayom/Kantar, Zman Yisrael/Tatika, Channel 13/Midgam, i24NEWS/Direct Polls). Israelische Institute veröffentlichen Sitzprojektionen für die Knesset, keine Stimmenanteile: Der hier gezeigte Zentralwert ist der projizierte Sitzanteil von 120, gemittelt über die sechs Erhebungen, kein Stimmenprozentsatz. Dies ist eine erklärte Umrechnung, keine weitere Umfrage."
  },
  "note": {
   "fr": "Le Sionisme religieux et Zehout ne sont testés que fusionnés dans les enquêtes disponibles : leur poids séparé n'a pas pu être confirmé. La liste Unity (Gantz-Eisenkot) s'est retirée de la course le 4 septembre 2026 et n'apparaît plus. Blue and White et Amcha Yisrael sont mesurés sous le seuil de 3,25 % dans la plupart des enquêtes et ne figurent pas ci-dessus.",
   "en": "Religious Zionism and Zehut are only tested merged in the available surveys: their separate weight could not be confirmed. The Unity list (Gantz-Eisenkot) withdrew from the race on 4 September 2026 and no longer appears. Blue and White and Amcha Yisrael poll below the 3.25% threshold in most surveys and are not listed above.",
   "de": "Religiöser Zionismus und Zehut werden in den verfügbaren Umfragen nur zusammengefasst getestet: Ihr getrenntes Gewicht konnte nicht bestätigt werden. Die Liste Unity (Gantz-Eisenkot) zog sich am 4. September 2026 aus dem Rennen zurück und erscheint nicht mehr. Blue and White und Amcha Yisrael liegen in den meisten Umfragen unter der 3,25-Prozent-Hürde und sind oben nicht aufgeführt."
  },
  "seuil": 3.25,
  "courbe": [
   {
    "date": "2026-01-07",
    "institut": "Ma'agar Mochot+Statnet/Channel 13",
    "valeurs": {
     "Likoud": 21.7,
     "Together (Lapid)": 5.8,
     "Sionisme religieux + Zehout": 8.3,
     "Otzma Yehudit": 0.0,
     "Shas": 5.8,
     "United Torah Judaism": 8.3,
     "Yisrael Beiteinu": 4.2,
     "Raam": 4.2,
     "Liste arabe unie (Joint List)": 0.0,
     "The Democrats": 6.7,
     "Yashar (Bennett)": 20.0,
     "Autres": 15.0
    }
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-04-09",
    "institut": "Kantar/Kan 11",
    "valeurs": {
     "Likoud": 20.8,
     "Together (Lapid)": 5.0,
     "Sionisme religieux + Zehout": 8.3,
     "Otzma Yehudit": 0.0,
     "Shas": 5.8,
     "United Torah Judaism": 7.5,
     "Yisrael Beiteinu": 4.2,
     "Raam": 4.2,
     "Liste arabe unie (Joint List)": 0.0,
     "The Democrats": 9.2,
     "Yashar (Bennett)": 15.8,
     "Autres": 19.2
    }
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-05-13",
    "institut": "Kantar/Israel Hayom",
    "valeurs": {
     "Likoud": 21.7,
     "Together (Lapid)": 20.0,
     "Sionisme religieux + Zehout": 7.5,
     "Otzma Yehudit": 0.0,
     "Shas": 5.8,
     "United Torah Judaism": 6.7,
     "Yisrael Beiteinu": 4.2,
     "Raam": 5.0,
     "Liste arabe unie (Joint List)": 0.0,
     "The Democrats": 8.3,
     "Yashar (Bennett)": 13.3,
     "Autres": 7.5
    }
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-06-04",
    "institut": "Kantar/Kan 11",
    "valeurs": {
     "Likoud": 20.0,
     "Together (Lapid)": 19.2,
     "Sionisme religieux + Zehout": 11.7,
     "Otzma Yehudit": 0.0,
     "Shas": 5.8,
     "United Torah Judaism": 6.7,
     "Yisrael Beiteinu": 3.3,
     "Raam": 5.0,
     "Liste arabe unie (Joint List)": 0.0,
     "The Democrats": 7.5,
     "Yashar (Bennett)": 14.2,
     "Autres": 6.7
    }
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-08-31",
    "institut": "Midgam Research & Consulting/HaHadashot 12",
    "valeurs": {
     "Likoud": 19.2,
     "Together (Lapid)": 12.5,
     "Sionisme religieux + Zehout": 0.0,
     "Otzma Yehudit": 6.7,
     "Shas": 5.8,
     "United Torah Judaism": 6.7,
     "Yisrael Beiteinu": 7.5,
     "Raam": 3.3,
     "Liste arabe unie (Joint List)": 5.8,
     "The Democrats": 9.2,
     "Yashar (Bennett)": 20.0,
     "Autres": 3.3
    }
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-17",
    "institut": "SF+ND/Channel 14",
    "valeurs": {
     "Likoud": 25.8,
     "Together (Lapid)": 7.5,
     "Sionisme religieux + Zehout": 5.8,
     "Otzma Yehudit": 6.7,
     "Shas": 8.3,
     "United Torah Judaism": 6.7,
     "Yisrael Beiteinu": 5.8,
     "Raam": 4.2,
     "Liste arabe unie (Joint List)": 5.8,
     "The Democrats": 6.7,
     "Yashar (Bennett)": 16.7,
     "Autres": 0.0
    }
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-22",
    "institut": "Midgam Research & Consulting/HaHadashot 12",
    "valeurs": {
     "Likoud": 16.7,
     "Together (Lapid)": 10.8,
     "Sionisme religieux + Zehout": 4.2,
     "Otzma Yehudit": 5.0,
     "Shas": 5.8,
     "United Torah Judaism": 6.7,
     "Yisrael Beiteinu": 7.5,
     "Raam": 4.2,
     "Liste arabe unie (Joint List)": 5.8,
     "The Democrats": 7.5,
     "Yashar (Bennett)": 19.2,
     "Autres": 6.7
    }
   }
  ],
  "courbe_note": {
   "fr": "Série reconstituée à partir de sondages Knesset publiés au fil de 2026, chacun en projection de sièges (sur 120), convertie ici en part de sièges pour homogénéité avec l'agrégat. Le Sionisme religieux et Zehout ne sont testés fusionnés que dans certaines enquêtes ; la série les regroupe systématiquement pour rester comparable dans le temps. La catégorie « Autres » absorbe les partis mineurs (Blue and White, Reservists, Noam Ezrachi, Amcha Yisrael, Haredi Public selon les enquêtes) et les non-identifiés, par différence avec le total de 120 sièges.",
   "en": "Series assembled from Knesset polls published through 2026, each a seat projection out of 120, converted here to seat share for consistency with the aggregate. Religious Zionism and Zehut are only tested merged in some surveys; the series groups them consistently throughout to stay comparable over time. The \"Others\" category absorbs minor parties (Blue and White, Reservists, National Ezrachi Party, Amcha Yisrael, Haredi Public depending on the survey) and unidentified ones, by difference from the 120-seat total.",
   "de": "Aus im Laufe von 2026 veröffentlichten Knesset-Umfragen zusammengestellte Reihe, jeweils eine Sitzprojektion von 120, hier zur Vergleichbarkeit mit dem Aggregat in Sitzanteile umgerechnet. Religiöser Zionismus und Zehut werden nur in manchen Umfragen zusammengefasst getestet; die Reihe fasst sie durchgängig zusammen, um über die Zeit vergleichbar zu bleiben. Die Kategorie „Sonstige” fasst kleinere Parteien (Blue and White, Reservists, National Ezrachi Party, Amcha Yisrael, Haredi Public je nach Umfrage) und nicht identifizierte Werte zusammen, als Differenz zum Gesamtwert von 120 Sitzen."
  },
  "sources": [
   "https://13tv.co.il/item/news/politics/politics/survey-905340911/",
   "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Israeli_legislative_election",
   "https://www.c14.co.il/article/1690265",
   "https://www.israelhayom.co.il/news/politics/article/21348438",
   "https://www.maariv.co.il/news/politics/article-1362890",
   "https://www.zman.co.il/720592/"
  ]
 },
 "prevision": {
  "id": "isr-legislative-2026-10-27",
  "iso3": "ISR",
  "pays": "Israël",
  "scrutin": "Élections législatives",
  "statut": "en_preparation",
  "url": "",
  "date_tirage": "",
  "simulations": "",
  "vagues": "",
  "colonnes": "",
  "chiffres": "",
  "source": "calendrier de l’Observatoire",
  "date_verification": "2026-09-25",
  "note": ""
 },
 "date_note": null,
 "alias": [
  [
   "yisrael beiteinu",
   "yisrael beitenou"
  ],
  [
   "yisrael beiteinu",
   "israel beiteinou"
  ],
  [
   "united torah judaism",
   "judaisme unifie de la torah"
  ],
  [
   "raam",
   "ra am"
  ]
 ]
}