{
 "id": "nzl-legislative-2026-11-07",
 "iso": "NZL",
 "pays": "Nouvelle-Zélande",
 "continent": "Océanie",
 "type": "LEGISLATIVES",
 "chambre": "BASSE",
 "date": "2026-11-07",
 "date_statut": "CONFIRMEE",
 "systeme": "chambre unique, proportionnelle mixte compensatoire, émission des brefs le 4 octobre 2026",
 "source_date": "https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2026/key-dates-for-2026-general-election",
 "date_verification": "2026-09-02",
 "niveau": "suivi",
 "fiche_url": "https://election.lemillenaire.org/nouvelle-zelande/index.html#scrutin-nouvelle-zelande-legislatives-2026",
 "intitule": {
  "fr": "Élections générales néo-zélandaises",
  "en": "New Zealand general election"
 },
 "forces": [
  {
   "nom": "National",
   "couleur": "#00529f",
   "couleur_source": "sondage",
   "sondage": 31.0,
   "autres": false,
   "id": "national"
  },
  {
   "nom": "Labour",
   "couleur": "#d82c20",
   "couleur_source": "sondage",
   "sondage": 25.9,
   "autres": false,
   "id": "labour"
  },
  {
   "nom": "Green",
   "couleur": "#098137",
   "couleur_source": "sondage",
   "sondage": 12.8,
   "autres": false,
   "id": "green"
  },
  {
   "nom": "ACT",
   "couleur": "#fdb913",
   "couleur_source": "sondage",
   "sondage": 8.9,
   "autres": false,
   "precedent": 8.64,
   "precedent_nom": "ACT New Zealand",
   "note": {
    "fr": "11 sièges en 2023, membre de la coalition sortante"
   },
   "id": "act"
  },
  {
   "nom": "NZ First",
   "couleur": "#000000",
   "couleur_source": "sondage",
   "sondage": 8.3,
   "autres": false,
   "id": "nz-first",
   "precedent": 0.34,
   "precedent_src": "precn"
  },
  {
   "nom": "TOP (The Opportunities Party)",
   "couleur": "#01a4e9",
   "couleur_source": "sondage",
   "sondage": 7.8,
   "autres": false,
   "id": "top-the-opportunities-party",
   "precedent": 2.22,
   "precedent_src": "precn"
  },
  {
   "nom": "Te Pāti Māori",
   "couleur": "#b2001a",
   "couleur_source": "sondage",
   "sondage": 1.5,
   "autres": false,
   "precedent": 3.08,
   "precedent_nom": "Te Pāti Māori",
   "note": {
    "fr": "6 sièges d'électorat en 2023, à l'origine du surplomb de 2 sièges"
   },
   "id": "te-pati-maori"
  },
  {
   "nom": "Autres et indécis",
   "couleur": "#8a9099",
   "couleur_source": "sondage",
   "sondage": null,
   "autres": true,
   "id": "autres-et-indecis"
  }
 ],
 "forces_origine": "sondage",
 "couleurs_affichage": false,
 "sieges": 120,
 "sieges_en_jeu": null,
 "majorite": 61,
 "chambre_sortante": {
  "nom": "House of Representatives",
  "total": 123,
  "groupes": [
   {
    "nom": "New Zealand National Party",
    "sigle": "National",
    "effectif": 49,
    "position": "centre_droit",
    "vacant": false,
    "hors_vote": false,
    "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/54th_New_Zealand_Parliament",
    "date": "2026-03-16",
    "fiabilite": "a_verifier",
    "couleur": "#00529f",
    "force": "national"
   },
   {
    "nom": "New Zealand Labour Party",
    "sigle": "Labour",
    "effectif": 34,
    "position": "centre_gauche",
    "vacant": false,
    "hors_vote": false,
    "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/54th_New_Zealand_Parliament",
    "date": "2026-03-16",
    "fiabilite": "a_verifier",
    "couleur": "#d82c20",
    "force": "labour"
   },
   {
    "nom": "Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand",
    "sigle": "Green",
    "effectif": 15,
    "position": "centre_gauche",
    "vacant": false,
    "hors_vote": false,
    "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/54th_New_Zealand_Parliament",
    "date": "2026-03-16",
    "fiabilite": "a_verifier",
    "couleur": "#098137",
    "force": "green"
   },
   {
    "nom": "ACT New Zealand",
    "sigle": "ACT",
    "effectif": 11,
    "position": "droite",
    "vacant": false,
    "hors_vote": false,
    "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/54th_New_Zealand_Parliament",
    "date": "2026-03-16",
    "fiabilite": "a_verifier",
    "couleur": "#fdb913",
    "force": "act"
   },
   {
    "nom": "New Zealand First",
    "sigle": "NZ First",
    "effectif": 8,
    "position": "droite",
    "vacant": false,
    "hors_vote": false,
    "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/54th_New_Zealand_Parliament",
    "date": "2026-03-16",
    "fiabilite": "a_verifier",
    "couleur": "#000000",
    "force": "nz-first"
   },
   {
    "nom": "Te Pāti Māori",
    "sigle": "Te Pāti Māori",
    "effectif": 5,
    "position": "gauche",
    "vacant": false,
    "hors_vote": false,
    "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/54th_New_Zealand_Parliament",
    "date": "2026-03-16",
    "fiabilite": "a_verifier",
    "couleur": "#b2001a",
    "force": "te-pati-maori"
   },
   {
    "nom": "Indépendant (Tākuta Ferris, ex-Te Pāti Māori)",
    "sigle": "",
    "effectif": 1,
    "position": null,
    "vacant": false,
    "hors_vote": false,
    "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/54th_New_Zealand_Parliament",
    "date": "2026-03-16",
    "fiabilite": "a_verifier",
    "couleur": "#16294d"
   }
  ],
  "tri_politique": false,
  "sources": [
   "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/54th_New_Zealand_Parliament"
  ],
  "date": "2026-03-16",
  "a_verifier": true,
  "ordre": [
   "National",
   "Labour",
   "Green",
   "ACT",
   "NZ First",
   "Te Pāti Māori",
   "Indépendant (Tākuta Ferris, ex-Te Pāti Māori)"
  ]
 },
 "precedent": {
  "texte": {
   "fr": "Élection générale du 14 octobre 2023, résultats officiels du 3 novembre 2023. Chambre de 122 sièges après un surplomb de 2, participation 78,2 %.",
   "en": "General election of 14 October 2023, official results published 3 November 2023. A 2-seat overhang produced a 122-seat House; turnout 78.2%."
  },
  "sources": [
   "https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2023/official-results-for-the-2023-general-election",
   "https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/what-is-mmp/how-are-mps-elected"
  ]
 },
 "sondage": {
  "id": "nouvelle-zelande-legislatives-2026",
  "date": "2026-09-01",
  "agregat": [
   {
    "nom": "National",
    "couleur": "#00529f",
    "centrale": 31.0
   },
   {
    "nom": "Labour",
    "couleur": "#d82c20",
    "centrale": 25.9
   },
   {
    "nom": "Green",
    "couleur": "#098137",
    "centrale": 12.8
   },
   {
    "nom": "ACT",
    "couleur": "#fdb913",
    "centrale": 8.9
   },
   {
    "nom": "NZ First",
    "couleur": "#000000",
    "centrale": 8.3
   },
   {
    "nom": "TOP (The Opportunities Party)",
    "couleur": "#01a4e9",
    "centrale": 7.8
   },
   {
    "nom": "Te Pāti Māori",
    "couleur": "#b2001a",
    "centrale": 1.5
   },
   {
    "nom": "Autres et indécis",
    "couleur": "#8a9099",
    "centrale": 3.8
   }
  ],
  "methode": {
   "fr": "Moyenne de deux enquêtes confirmées directement sur le site de l'institut : Taxpayers' Union-Curia (terrain 1-4 août 2026) et Roy Morgan (terrain 27 juillet-23 août 2026, publiée le 31 août 2026). Trois autres enquêtes de la période (1News-Verian, Talbot Mills, RNZ-Reid Research) circulent via l'agrégateur Wikipédia mais n'ont pas pu être confirmées sur une page primaire dans cette collecte ; elles ne sont donc pas mêlées à la moyenne ci-dessus, pour ne pas faire entrer une donnée non vérifiée dans un agrégat qui se veut sourcé de première main.",
   "en": "Average of two surveys confirmed directly on the pollster's own site: Taxpayers' Union-Curia (fieldwork 1-4 August 2026) and Roy Morgan (fieldwork 27 July-23 August 2026, published 31 August 2026). Three other surveys from the period (1News-Verian, Talbot Mills, RNZ-Reid Research) circulate via the Wikipedia aggregator but could not be confirmed on a primary page in this collection; they are therefore not blended into the average above, so as not to bring an unverified figure into an aggregate meant to be first-hand sourced.",
   "de": "Durchschnitt aus zwei direkt auf der Seite des Instituts bestätigten Umfragen: Taxpayers' Union-Curia (Feldzeit 1.-4. August 2026) und Roy Morgan (Feldzeit 27. Juli-23. August 2026, veröffentlicht am 31. August 2026). Drei weitere Umfragen aus diesem Zeitraum (1News-Verian, Talbot Mills, RNZ-Reid Research) kursieren über den Wikipedia-Aggregator, konnten in dieser Erhebung aber nicht auf einer Primärseite bestätigt werden; sie fließen deshalb nicht in den obigen Durchschnitt ein, um keinen ungeprüften Wert in ein als erstsourcig gedachtes Aggregat einzubringen."
  },
  "note": {
   "fr": "TOP (The Opportunities Party) est mesuré entre 6,1 % et 9,5 % selon les deux enquêtes retenues, autour ou au-dessus du seuil de 5 % : un parti à suivre de près. Un ancien sondage Taxpayers' Union-Curia de mars 2026 (Labour 34,4 %, National 28,4 %) circule encore dans certaines recherches ; il est antérieur et n'est pas utilisé ici.",
   "en": "TOP (The Opportunities Party) polls between 6.1% and 9.5% across the two surveys used, around or above the 5% threshold: a party worth watching closely. An older Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll from March 2026 (Labour 34.4%, National 28.4%) still surfaces in some searches; it predates this collection and is not used here.",
   "de": "TOP (The Opportunities Party) liegt in den beiden verwendeten Umfragen zwischen 6,1 % und 9,5 %, um oder über der 5-Prozent-Hürde: eine Partei, die es zu beobachten gilt. Eine ältere Taxpayers' Union-Curia-Umfrage vom März 2026 (Labour 34,4 %, National 28,4 %) taucht in manchen Suchen noch auf; sie liegt vor diesem Erhebungszeitraum und wird hier nicht verwendet."
  },
  "seuil": 5.0,
  "courbe": [
   {
    "date": "2025-10-06",
    "institut": "1News-Verian",
    "valeurs": {
     "National": 34,
     "Labour": 32,
     "Green": 11,
     "ACT": 8,
     "NZ First": 9,
     "Te Pāti Māori": 2.8,
     "TOP (The Opportunities Party)": 0.8,
     "Autres et indécis": 2.4
    }
   },
   {
    "date": "2025-12-05",
    "institut": "Taxpayers' Union-Curia",
    "valeurs": {
     "National": 30,
     "Labour": 31.6,
     "Green": 10.8,
     "ACT": 8.9,
     "NZ First": 8.1,
     "Te Pāti Māori": 3.1,
     "TOP (The Opportunities Party)": 1.6,
     "Autres et indécis": 6
    }
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-01-16",
    "institut": "Taxpayers' Union-Curia",
    "valeurs": {
     "National": 31.5,
     "Labour": 34.4,
     "Green": 7.7,
     "ACT": 7,
     "NZ First": 11.9,
     "Te Pāti Māori": 3,
     "TOP (The Opportunities Party)": 0.7,
     "Autres et indécis": 3.8
    }
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-03-09",
    "institut": "Roy Morgan",
    "valeurs": {
     "National": 26.5,
     "Labour": 34,
     "Green": 11,
     "ACT": 10,
     "NZ First": 11,
     "Te Pāti Māori": 3,
     "TOP (The Opportunities Party)": 4,
     "Autres et indécis": 0.5
    }
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-07-05",
    "institut": "RNZ-Reid Research",
    "valeurs": {
     "National": 28.7,
     "Labour": 34,
     "Green": 10.3,
     "ACT": 7.8,
     "NZ First": 11.5,
     "Te Pāti Māori": 2.3,
     "TOP (The Opportunities Party)": 4.7,
     "Autres et indécis": 0.8
    }
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-07-12",
    "institut": "Roy Morgan",
    "valeurs": {
     "National": 32,
     "Labour": 25.5,
     "Green": 13.5,
     "ACT": 8.5,
     "NZ First": 8.5,
     "Te Pāti Māori": 2,
     "TOP (The Opportunities Party)": 8,
     "Autres et indécis": 2
    }
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-08-02",
    "institut": "Taxpayers' Union-Curia",
    "valeurs": {
     "National": 31,
     "Labour": 27.8,
     "Green": 10.1,
     "ACT": 7.3,
     "NZ First": 9.1,
     "Te Pāti Māori": 1.5,
     "TOP (The Opportunities Party)": 6.1,
     "Autres et indécis": 2.2
    }
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-08-09",
    "institut": "Roy Morgan",
    "valeurs": {
     "National": 31,
     "Labour": 24,
     "Green": 15.5,
     "ACT": 10.5,
     "NZ First": 7.5,
     "Te Pāti Māori": 1.5,
     "TOP (The Opportunities Party)": 9.5,
     "Autres et indécis": 0.5
    }
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-08-10",
    "institut": "1News-Verian",
    "valeurs": {
     "National": 29,
     "Labour": 30,
     "Green": 12,
     "ACT": 9,
     "NZ First": 8,
     "Te Pāti Māori": 1.1,
     "TOP (The Opportunities Party)": 8,
     "Autres et indécis": 2.7
    }
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-02",
    "institut": "Taxpayers' Union-Curia",
    "valeurs": {
     "National": 29,
     "Labour": 25.9,
     "Green": 13.9,
     "ACT": 10.5,
     "NZ First": 8.4,
     "Te Pāti Māori": 2,
     "TOP (The Opportunities Party)": 4.5,
     "Autres et indécis": 5.9
    }
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-07",
    "institut": "Anacta",
    "valeurs": {
     "National": 30,
     "Labour": 31,
     "Green": 12,
     "ACT": 8,
     "NZ First": 10,
     "Te Pāti Māori": 2,
     "TOP (The Opportunities Party)": 7,
     "Autres et indécis": 0
    }
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-07",
    "institut": "The Post/Freshwater Strategy",
    "valeurs": {
     "National": 27,
     "Labour": 28,
     "Green": 14,
     "ACT": 9,
     "NZ First": 13,
     "Te Pāti Māori": 2,
     "TOP (The Opportunities Party)": 6,
     "Autres et indécis": 2
    }
   }
  ],
  "courbe_note": {
   "fr": "Série de 12 sondages publiés entre octobre 2025 et septembre 2026 (1News-Verian, Taxpayers' Union-Curia, Roy Morgan, RNZ-Reid Research, Anacta, The Post/Freshwater Strategy), extraite de l'agrégateur Wikipédia dédié à ce scrutin. Contrairement à l'agrégat ci-dessus, qui ne retient que deux enquêtes confirmées sur page primaire, cette série élargit volontairement aux instituts pour donner une évolution dans le temps ; chaque point reste attribué à son institut d'origine.",
   "en": "Series of 12 polls published between October 2025 and September 2026 (1News-Verian, Taxpayers' Union-Curia, Roy Morgan, RNZ-Reid Research, Anacta, The Post/Freshwater Strategy), drawn from the Wikipedia aggregator dedicated to this election. Unlike the aggregate above, which only keeps two surveys confirmed on a primary page, this series deliberately widens the pollster set to show movement over time; each point stays attributed to its source pollster.",
   "de": "Reihe von 12 zwischen Oktober 2025 und September 2026 veröffentlichten Umfragen (1News-Verian, Taxpayers' Union-Curia, Roy Morgan, RNZ-Reid Research, Anacta, The Post/Freshwater Strategy), entnommen aus dem für diese Wahl geführten Wikipedia-Aggregator. Anders als das obige Aggregat, das nur zwei auf einer Primärseite bestätigte Umfragen berücksichtigt, erweitert diese Reihe bewusst den Kreis der Institute, um die Entwicklung über die Zeit zu zeigen; jeder Punkt bleibt seinem Ursprungsinstitut zugeordnet."
  },
  "sources": [
   "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_New_Zealand_general_election",
   "https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10321-nz-national-voting-intention-august-2026",
   "https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/aug2026_nztucurghs17668"
  ]
 },
 "prevision": null,
 "date_note": null,
 "alias": [
  [
   "yisrael beiteinu",
   "yisrael beitenou"
  ],
  [
   "yisrael beiteinu",
   "israel beiteinou"
  ],
  [
   "united torah judaism",
   "judaisme unifie de la torah"
  ],
  [
   "raam",
   "ra am"
  ]
 ]
}