The early vote, State by State
Official figures published by States and counties, with their source and time. This page computes no forecast; for four States, a Millénaire estimate, labelled as such, describes the voters who have already voted.
- Official State figures
- Estimates labelled, kept apart
- No voter-level data
- Source and time for every figure
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The 21 other States and what they publish
All 50 States and Washington, D.C. have been reviewed (inventory of 10/23). A State joins the page as soon as it publishes an official figure that can be read without bypassing any protection; the list is reviewed at each collection.
Method
Every morning a script reads the files published by State election authorities, keeps their SHA-256 fingerprint and checks that the sum of counties equals the published total. States without a readable file are collected by hand from an official page, with the address and time of the data.
Definitions differ between States: ballots accepted, received or returned. They are given under each figure. Totals from two States do not add up.
The party registration breakdown describes who has voted, never for whom. The early vote does not predict the result: our probabilities are published separately, on the forecast page.
The Millénaire estimate (North Carolina, Florida, Iowa, Texas) gives the likely lean of the voters who have already voted only, from their party registration and their county's 2024 presidential vote. In Texas, which has no party registration, it applies to each county the vote of its 2022 early voters. Formula, parameters and test are published under each estimate. It changes until Election Day and says nothing about the final result.
No figure comes from a private aggregator. No voter-level data is stored or published.
Our US elections forecast · The Observatory's United States page